Thursday, March 22, 2007

Why NBC/NewsCorp partnership will fail

Mark's excited about the NBC/NewsCorp partnership. I'm not.

As we know, it's not just delivery of the content that counts. Google gives away server space so the argument that they'll lose audience because their clips are 10 minutes or less is bunk. Don't be shocked to see Google throw a few million at new servers to counter this effort. Unlike its competitors, Google has a boatload of revenue from AdWords that it will use to bury competitors, not just make their numbers this quarter. As AdWords goes so does Google and its investments. Fox and NBC will pull the plug once their site can't turn a profit. Bet on it.

Since I mentioned content earlier I'll go there (oh no you dihn't!) - most of the programming on those stations sucks. YouTube gets content for free. In fact, the most popular videos on YouTube weren't produced by TV stations or professionals.

If they do put all of their TV shows online they're going to kill their network advertising as ratings drop. Networks have made a killing on not providing real viewership numbers, but online it's all traceable and trackable. Say, to quote the David Spade SNL flight attendant sketch, "Buh bye" TV revenue. Hello smaller online ad buys and budgets. And that, my friends, means "Buh bye" to online video for the major networks.

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